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Bitcoin
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Affairs
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No. 075 · 10 Aug 2026
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
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BTC / USD
$64,610
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24H CHANGE
-1.0%
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ALL-TIME HIGH
$124,749
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FROM ATH
-48.2%
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Hormuz negotiations unsettle oil and risk sentiment ahead of U.S. inflation data
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Oil rose and U.S. stock futures were mixed Monday as negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz remained unresolved, even after details surfaced on a potential Iran-Oman shipping arrangement. The setup matters for Bitcoin because higher energy prices can keep inflation pressure alive just as markets head into this week’s CPI and PPI releases and reassess the Fed path.
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Strategy monetizes more bitcoin and adds $650 million to its cash reserve
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Strategy sold 1,690 BTC for $108.6 million last week and raised another $653.1 million through MSTR share sales, lifting its USD reserve to $4.65 billion. The move trims holdings to 840,447 BTC and keeps focus on how the market’s biggest corporate bitcoin buyer is funding itself during a weaker tape.
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CME hedge funds flip net long as basis trade loses to Treasuries
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Leveraged funds trading bitcoin futures on CME have turned net long, a rare shift after years of structural short positioning tied to the basis trade. With annualized three-month bitcoin futures basis near 3% and two-year Treasuries yielding roughly 3.8%, the old carry trade is losing appeal and outright upside bets are becoming more visible.
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Bitcoin volatility collapses, but traders still pay up for downside insurance
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Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility gauge, BVIV, fell to 35.59% over the weekend, its lowest level since September 2025, as range-bound trading and heavy options overwriting crushed demand for big directional bets. Even so, put options still trade at a premium to calls, suggesting traders remain hedged for another leg lower despite calmer price action.
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≡
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COMMENTARY
VOICE FROM THE NETWORK
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THE SETUP THAT PUSHED BITCOIN TO $82K IN MAY IS FORMING AGAIN.
Derivatives driving the market.
Demand growth turning positive at 25,000 BTC.
The pattern is identical.
But here is the critical warning.
May's rally was short lived because spot demand never confirmed.
And right now spot demand is still barely breathing.
Futures can ignite a move.
Only spot can sustain one.
25,000 BTC of demand growth is a start.
Not a foundation.
Watch spot demand obsessively right now.
It is the only variable that determines whether this rally is real or another trap.
7 reposts 10 replies 168 likes
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🚩 Bitcoin Red Team Update
We're continuing a large-scale security review of the Bitcoin open-source ecosystem.
25 Bitcoin developers around the world have been working on this task non-stop for 108 hours. https://t.co/CwNXHgRmdn
142 reposts 43 replies 923 likes
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BITCOIN DEATH CROSS 🚨 https://t.co/9q7F8tto4T
29 reposts 22 replies 273 likes
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"The Mathematics of Bitcoin" is a short paper that examines Bitcoin from a mathematical perspective.
It uses probability, stochastic processes, martingales, combinatorics, and special functions to study some of the mechanisms behind the Bitcoin protocol. In particular, the paper discusses double-spending probabilities, mining profitability, block generation, mining strategies, and protocol stability.
If you want to go deeper, I also recommend "Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Technologies" from Princeton University, which provides a much broader introduction to cryptographic hash functions, digital signatures, consensus, proof of work, mining, transactions, anonymity, security, and the incentive mechanisms behind cryptocurrencies.
Save both to your bookmarks. They are useful references if you are curious about the mathematical and technical mechanisms behind Bitcoin.
The Mathematics of Bitcoin:
https://t.co/DyaDyoLu1i
Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Technologies:
https://t.co/XimmiAio9W
73 reposts 5 replies 422 likes
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Hedge funds on the CME are now net long on $BTC.
This happened in April 2025 and March 2026, and in both instances, Bitcoin rallied 30% or more. https://t.co/D4dPdJAlpm
45 reposts 72 replies 501 likes
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Bitcoin's bear market is now 600 DAYS OLD when you look at BTC priced in gold!
Something fascinating is that all three previous gold-denominated cycle bottoms arrived in an absurdly tight ~21-day window.
This cycle we have so far seen the trough on day 433.
If that holds, that'll mean all cycle bottoms arrived in a 36-day window.
We live in a simulation.
Using the exact Day 600 point from the three prior completed BTC/gold bear markets, median forward BTC/USD returns were:
1 month: −13.6%
3 months: −0.3%
6 months: +34.0%
9 months: +51.0%
12 months: +122.0%
18 months: +285.1%
24 months: +307.9%
From the BTC print of $65,245, those median returns correspond to roughly $87K in 6 months, $99K in 9 months, $145K in 12 months, $251K in 18 months, and $266K in 24 months.
If history rhymes... recovery in both gold and USD terms is IMMINENT:
78 reposts 35 replies 613 likes
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