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Bitcoin
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Affairs
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No. 079 · 14 Aug 2026
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
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BTC / USD
$62,681
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24H CHANGE
-1.1%
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ALL-TIME HIGH
$124,749
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FROM ATH
-49.8%
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U.S. retail sales post sharp July drop, reviving growth scare and Fed debate
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U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% in July, the biggest monthly decline since May 2025, a fresh sign that consumer demand may be softening after months of resilience. For bitcoin, the report matters because weaker growth can ease rate-hike pressure at the margin, even as it also raises broader recession risk.
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| Fed Rates Macro |
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Drone attacks on two UAE tankers raise fresh Strait of Hormuz risk
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The United Arab Emirates blamed Iran for drone attacks on two state-linked tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, adding a new supply-risk jolt to an already fragile energy backdrop. Any renewed disruption in the strait can feed straight into oil, inflation expectations and bond yields, making it a direct macro variable for bitcoin.
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| Geopolitics Macro Rates |
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MSCI proposal could push Strategy and Metaplanet out of global equity indexes
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MSCI opened a consultation that could classify certain asset-heavy treasury companies as non-operating businesses, a screen that would have removed Strategy and Metaplanet from key global indexes using current data. That matters for bitcoin because index exclusion can curb passive-equity demand for the sector’s largest public BTC proxies and tighten an important institutional transmission channel.
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| ETF Macro |
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Trezor customer address leak revives hardware wallet security and phishing concerns
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Trezor said nearly 14,000 customers had personal data exposed after its fulfillment partner ShipMonk suffered unauthorized access, though Trezor’s own wallets and systems were not breached. For bitcoin holders, the episode is a sharp reminder that self-custody risk often sits in the supply chain and customer-data layer, not just in the device itself.
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| On-chain Regulation |
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≡
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COMMENTARY
VOICE FROM THE NETWORK
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Forget Elon's Gadget. Buy the Companies Behind Its Tech.
Every breakthrough device runs on chips, parts, and materials from other companies — most of them public and overlooked. Our analyst named 3 positioned to profit from Elon's July 22 launch, plus the most undervalued name in the supply chain.
POV: you moved your bitcoin from Coldcard because of the hack and now your data got stolen after you bought a new Trezor device
This crypto stuff is complete bullshit https://t.co/EGMnM9KU3z
128 reposts 136 replies 1.6K likes
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🚨 Bitcoin's long term holders are capitulating again. And every time, it marked a bottom.
This indicator tracks the % of long term holders sitting in profit. Below 65%, bear market bottoms start to form.
Every single time it hit this level, it was a capitulation bottom. 2015, 2019, 2020, 2023.
And where is it now? Right back in that same zone.
When the diehards give up, the selling runs out.
10 reposts 20 replies 154 likes
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#Bitcoin: History Is Repeating
I remember buying Bitcoin at 18k in 2022 while everyone was calling for a recession and much lower targets. There were people everywhere calling for 10-12k, yet my decision to buy at 18k proved to be correct. It ended up being one of the smartest decisions I ever made in my financial life.
Unless the financial system cracks, I believe the bottom is already in at 57.7k, and I am therefore accumulating here at 60-64k. I will accumulate even more if, for some reason, we see a big event that breaks the 57.7k level, which for now I consider the bottom.
The 2022 weekly bullish divergence with the RSI was the main reason I started buying at 18k, and the 2026 weekly bullish divergence with the RSI is the main reason I am buying at 60-64k. This indicator has NEVER failed Bitcoin, and to the big disappointment of the doom callers, it will remain intact.
Join Syndicate for more: https://t.co/6oQ4TxAELV
54 reposts 44 replies 441 likes
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i first called for Bitcoin's bear market bottom to be $34,500 in August 2024 (made the call then, not saying bottom was then)
next, i said BTC was topping when it touched the upper boundary – everyone laughed at me and called me a fool. bullish analysts placed bets against me – they lost
in hindsight, i nailed the top. if I get the bear market bottom, at the right price, at the right time, and have been calling it for over two years in advance at the very same levels for the same reasons...
if I get this wrong, i am just like everyone else who gets it wrong. if I get it right, that shit is borderline legendary
risk:reward is therefore on my side, and it makes sense to be bold and shout about my targets and timing
hit my pinned tweet for ten charts supporting the $34,500 target - this ain't even one of the ten, yet it shows several different technical methodologies on the chart, each of which have never missed once
do you think this next low is a miss? or will it be five in a row?
26 reposts 50 replies 222 likes
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This is my 3rd Bitcoin bear market. Here's what seems clear to me, that newer Bitcoiners may not feel....
1. This is what a BTC bear market bottom feels like
Normie friends have been asking me "is BTC going to be 60s forever?" and "what positive catalysts are on the horizon?"
One of the big lessons I've learned in BTC cycles is that the tops feel bullish... and the bottoms feel bearish.
The end of a bear market is primarily a function of running out of sellers. The bearish sentiment builds on itself and shakes out low conviction holders... until you exhaust potential sellers.
Or perhaps a more precise mental image... the bottom is in WHEN the pile of capital hoping for a lower entry price to buy BTC has become disproportionately large relative to remaining potential sellers.
A BTC bear market doesn't end because good news arrives. It ends because bearish momentum can't be sustained and naturally ebbs. Then, suddenly, people sitting in cash are caught offsides and must bid BTC higher as they try to get back in.
2. The 2022 cycle bottom felt similar
June 2022, it felt like shit watching BTC tumble below prior cycle high ($20k) for the first time ever. Price tumbled from $30k to $18k in a few days. People thought we were headed to $12k . In hindsight, that was peak bearish momentum.
Over the next ~5 months, BTC drifted lower, with FTX fallout setting a cycle low in November at $15.5k . BTC felt gloomy and quiet for 2 months... and then popped back to $23k in January 2023 all of a sudden.
In hindsight, that was the start of a 2.5 year bull market that took BTC to $126k, roughly ~8x from cycle low.
3. Metrics show 2026 repeating the psychology of 2022
This chart shows Short-Term Holder cost basis (pink line) and how it tracks with BTC market price (white line). The bottom half shows this as a ratio between the two numbers (STH MVRV). Credit to @_Checkmatey_ for this excellent chart.
In the 2022 bear market, you can see that the lowest STH MVRV ratio was June 2022. After this point, Short-Term Holder cost basis drifted lower along with BTC price for ~7 months, until January 2023 when BTC jumped convincingly above the pink line for the first time in 13 months... and a new bull market had begun.
In 2026, the MVRV ratio spiked lowest in Feb. Since then, STH cost basis and BTC price have drifted lower for ~6 months now.
4. What this could mean for BTC's near future
If the parallels between 2022 and 2026 continue, it would mean BTC price jumping convincingly above STH cost basis sometime in the next few months. (7 months post peak bearish momentum would mean September 2026; 13 months below STH cost basis trendline would mean November 2026.)
And in hindsight, that breakout moment could be the start of a 2.5 year bull market. (8x from $58k low would be $464k, but even a 4x would be $232k/BTC.)
If history repeats, this was the bottom. And in 4 years, you'll look back at $64k BTC the same way we now look back wistfully at $19k BTC.
202 reposts 113 replies 1.4K likes
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