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Bitcoin
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Affairs
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No. 091 · 26 Aug 2026
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In partnership with
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
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BTC / USD
$78,479
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24H CHANGE
-1.0%
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ALL-TIME HIGH
$124,749
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FROM ATH
-37.1%
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The best ideas from the best books, distilled into practical insights you can actually use. Explore proven ideas on habits, mindset, productivity, relationships, and personal growth without spending hours reading every page. Get 49% OFF
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Bitcoin rally cools after U.S. inflation data at 3.7%
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BEA said the PCE price index rose 0.2% in July and was up 3.7% from a year earlier, while core PCE also rose 0.2% on the month and 3.3% on the year. Personal income rose 0.4%, spending rose 0.2%, and the saving rate fell to 3.0%.
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| Fed Rates Macro |
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U.S. growth held at 1.5% as inflation revisions kept policy pressure elevated
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BEA left second-quarter real GDP growth unchanged at a 1.5% annualized pace. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers were revised up to 4.2%, but the gross domestic purchases price index and quarterly PCE measures were also revised higher, keeping the growth-inflation mix uncomfortable for markets.
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| Fed Rates Macro |
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Four regional Fed boards sought a July rate hike before hold
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Minutes released on August 25 showed four regional Fed bank boards wanted the primary credit rate lifted to 4.0% before the July policy meeting. The Board kept the rate at 3.75%, underscoring the hawkish split heading into Jackson Hole.
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| Fed Rates Macro |
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U.S. broadened Iran sanctions to crypto, shipping, gold and technology
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A CoinDesk report said Treasury's latest Iran measures let OFAC target anyone it determines operates in the country's digital-asset sector, regardless of location. Treasury also said Ivan Obukhov processed more than $100 million in crypto tied to IRGC-QF oil sales since 2023.
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| Regulation Geopolitics |
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≡
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COMMENTARY
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⚠️The risk of a Bitcoin Long Squeeze is rising again!
This usually happens when Long positions become increasingly concentrated while Funding Rates remain positive across multiple exchanges.
5 reposts 4 replies 162 likes
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PCE comes in hotter than expected🚨
July headline PCE rose 0.2% MoM vs 0.1% expected, while annual PCE hit 3.7% vs 3.6% expected.
Core PCE was in line at 0.2% MoM / 3.3% YoY.
$BTC dropped below $78K on the news.
1 reposts 0 replies 5 likes
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US PCE came in at 3.7% vs 3.6% expected.
Q2 GDP was right in line at 1.5%.
A slightly hotter PCE isn’t exactly what BTC needed after this recent run, so some short term chop wouldn’t surprise me.
But my view from here is still bullish.
Even a deeper move into the low $70Ks wouldn’t change much for me. I’d still see it as consolidation before the next leg higher.
31 reposts 30 replies 358 likes
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🔴 Long-term holders increase exchange deposits as BTC nears $80,000
Bitcoin's rally has pushed some investors to see the trend as a way to exit the market.
Notably on the LTH side, represented here by the >1y supply, we can observe that their supply is currently declining after a positive stretch throughout the year. This is the first time this year that LTH have distributed more than the number of BTC transitioning into LTH status.
💥 After reaching a maximum monthly average of +286 000 in early June, we're now at -21 000 BTC.
This is a sign that LTH have increased their selling pressure.
This can be seen through the number of BTC sent to exchanges by LTH. They hit a 2026 record as BTC approached $80 000.
It was notably the youngest LTH (6m-18m) who were the most active, with more than 297 000 BTC sent to exchanges.
👉 This is a signal worth watching closely, because even though demand has improved, the increase in selling pressure, particularly from LTH, could bring a new imbalance in favor of sellers.
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8 reposts 6 replies 52 likes
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Oct 2019 rally vs August 2026 rally
Both happened after $BTC apathetic top https://t.co/cdP7WTrlFf
8 reposts 68 replies 217 likes
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🚨 THE FED IS NOW STUCK BETWEEN A SLOWING ECONOMY AND INFLATION THAT WON'T COME DOWN EASILY.
GDP grew just 1.5% in Q2, in line with expectations but well below last year's pace.
The economy is slowing.
PCE inflation came in at 3.7% in July, above the 3.6% expected and nearly double the Fed's 2% target.
But it is down from 4.1% in May, so the direction is improving even if the level is still too high.
This is the trap.
When growth slows, the normal response is to cut rates. But at 3.7% inflation, cutting makes it worse. The Fed cannot cut and staying still risks falling further behind.
The July FOMC vote was already 9 to 3. Three officials voted to hike immediately.
Markets are pricing in a 36% chance of a September hike.
On the other side, the Treasury doubled its bond buybacks and signaled it could draw from its $950 billion general account without issuing new debt.
That is significant liquidity waiting in the system.
Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole on Friday.
Whatever he signals on rates will set the tone for September and beyond.
68 reposts 40 replies 383 likes
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