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Bitcoin
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Affairs
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No. 063 Β· 28 Jul 2026
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In partnership with
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
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BTC / USD
$63,244
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24H CHANGE
-2.6%
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ALL-TIME HIGH
$124,749
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FROM ATH
-49.3%
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Fed surprise risk rises as Warsh abandons the old no-surprises playbook
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Markets have pushed the odds of a July rate hike materially higher, with Axios citing CME FedWatch at roughly 34%, up from 16% a week earlier. The piece argues Kevin Warsh may be willing to tolerate more policy surprise than recent Fed chairs, making Wednesdayβs statement and press conference unusually important for bitcoin and other risk assets.
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| Fed Rates Macro |
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Asian chip rout revives AI-capex doubts and pressures risk assets before Fed
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Reuters reported that chip stocks slumped across Asia as investors questioned the financing behind the AI buildout and worried about rising Chinese competition. Falling oil prices did little to calm markets because traders remain focused on whether the Fed could still tighten policy this week.
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New York attorney general challenges Clarity Act as Senate vote window narrows
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New York Attorney General Letitia James told senators the Clarity Act would weaken state fraud enforcement and should include tougher anti-money-laundering and ethics protections. The intervention lands as Congress races to move market-structure legislation before the August recess, adding fresh uncertainty to a bill crypto markets have been watching closely.
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Regulated crypto perpetual futures reach U.S. markets, but banks stay cautious
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CoinDesk reported that regulated perpetual futures are now moving onshore in the U.S., with Kalshi topping $1 billion in volume within a week of launch and Coinbase also cleared to list the product. Big banks are still holding back, however, as they wait for deeper liquidity, clearer rules and more mature infrastructure.
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β‘
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COMMENTARY
VOICE FROM THE NETWORK
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You Use AI Every Day. Why don't you own any of it?
You probably opened something powered by AI before your first coffee this morning. Millions of people do. Almost none of them own a piece of it.
That's been the catch with the AI boom β the biggest gains went to insiders and venture funds, while the companies actually building the frontier stayed private and out of reach.
That's starting to change. A wave of AI IPOs is forming, and a few are shaping up to be among the most retail-accessible mega-listings in years β the rare chance to get in near the ground floor instead of reading about the gains after the fact.
Our free briefing lays out the timeline, the access window, and the filing risk most investors will miss. No credit card. Sent straight to your inbox.
$BTC DEATH Cross Returns... π
Last time this happened, BTC crashed another -30%.
You see where this is going, donβt youβ¦ https://t.co/nQNY1Ek4Xw
94 reposts 91 replies 856 likes
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JUST IN: Bitcoin Long-term-holder supply climbed to an all-time high of 14.85 million BTC at the end of Q1, according to Ark Invest π
Conviction continues to grow π https://t.co/pAFFzPoRrt
266 reposts 114 replies 1.4K likes
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π¨ EVERYTHING IS CRASHING...
US chip stocks crashed overnight.
Nvidia fell 4.4%.
Micron dropped nearly 5%.
SanDisk crashed more than 10%.
Now Asia is collapsing too.
Japan's Nikkei is down over 4%.
South Korea's KOSPI crashed 10%, triggering another circuit breaker.
Bitcoin also crashed below $63K
Here's why:
China has started producing its own advanced chipmaking machines, reducing its dependence on ASML and threatening the global chip supply chain.
At the same time, Nvidia's $750 billion deal wave is raising fears that AI companies are financing the same customers buying their chips.
And the biggest risk is still ahead.
The Fed meets tomorrow, with rate-hike odds surging from around 16% to nearly 38% in just one week. Bitcoin is already reacting.
BTC crashed below $63,000 as traders priced in a much higher chance of another rate hike.
Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon are also reporting earnings within the same 72 hours.
Citadel Securities is now going further, calling for a surprise Fed rate hike this week, arguing Chair Kevin Warsh will move to strengthen his inflation fighting credibility even as most economists still expect a hold.
China, the Fed and Big Tech are all hitting the AI trade at once.
The next 72 hours could decide whether this is just a correction or the start of a much bigger crash.
Buckle up.
318 reposts 169 replies 1.5K likes
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JUST IN: Bitcoin falls back under $64,000 as $100 million is liquidated from the crypto market in the past 60 minutes. https://t.co/6ZkSi9UVMw
699 reposts 584 replies 5.8K likes
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Friendly reminder that Bitcoin is dead again and will go to zero. https://t.co/4YRrfyBVO1
34 reposts 23 replies 464 likes
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