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Bitcoin
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Affairs
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No. 040 · 4 Jul 2026
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
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BTC / USD
$62,565
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24H CHANGE
+0.9%
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ALL-TIME HIGH
$124,749
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FROM ATH
-49.8%
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Bitcoin whales absorb record ETF selling as institutional demand turns negative
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Large holders added more than 270,000 BTC over the past two weeks even as U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs suffered a record $4.06 billion of June outflows and slipped negative for 2026 year-to-date. The split suggests non-ETF buyers are absorbing distribution, a pattern that has often appeared near prior cycle lows.
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Loss-making bitcoin supply now exceeds profitable supply for the first time
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Glassnode data cited by CoinDesk show about 10.83 million BTC are now held at a loss versus 9.22 million still in profit, the first such crossover of this cycle. Similar moments have historically lined up with capitulation and supply transfer to stronger hands, though they have not guaranteed an immediate bottom.
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Exchange deposit spike signals rising bitcoin volatility as large holders reposition
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CryptoQuant said bitcoin deposits to exchanges surged to nearly 49,000 BTC on June 30, an extreme reached only a handful of times this year and one that has often preceded major directional moves. The firm also said average deposit size doubled, implying whales and institutions are moving more coins onto exchanges and increasing near-term volatility risk.
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Bitcoin’s next explosive rally may require unprecedented trillion-dollar capital inflows
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CryptoQuant’s realized-cap analysis suggests bitcoin’s capital efficiency has fallen sharply as the asset has matured, with roughly $697 billion of new money this cycle producing a far smaller percentage gain than earlier bull runs. The takeaway is that another truly parabolic move may need more than $1 trillion of fresh institutional capital, a much higher hurdle after recent ETF outflows.
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≡
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COMMENTARY
VOICE FROM THE NETWORK
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$90 Trillion in Offshore Perps. Now They're in the US.
Traders have been going long and short on crypto for years — offshore, unregulated. Kalshi fixed that. First CFTC-regulated perps in the US. BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and more. Up to 5.8x leverage.
Using leverage increases risk of loss. Leverage is subject to the Firm's review and the customer's risk profile.
Back to normal: Gold and bitcoin are trading as one again https://t.co/demNxUZ7xD
228 reposts 72 replies 2.1K likes
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🇩🇪 ADOPTION: Millions of Germans will soon be able to buy and sell crypto directly through their local banks, per Bloomberg. https://t.co/R5nCKQMPj4
210 reposts 112 replies 1.3K likes
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🇺🇸 HUGE: The USA has 2.8X more Bitcoin than every other country combined. https://t.co/PH8RQcf80u
47 reposts 94 replies 272 likes
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Bitcoin ETFs bought $221,720,000 in $BTC yesterday.
The largest inflow in almost 2 months. https://t.co/m6PztnNpLC
117 reposts 121 replies 597 likes
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Last 3 times $BTC had a red May and June, it averaged 19% return in July.
If this repeats, Bitcoin could tap the $70,000-$71,000 zone this month. https://t.co/s93DOWWWaR
80 reposts 93 replies 511 likes
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🚨 $BTC IS FOLLOWING THE SAME PATTERN AGAIN.
Every Bitcoin bear market looks different on the surface, but the structure is usually the same.
A sharp dump.
A relief bounce.
Then one final flush that makes most people give up.
That’s exactly why I kept saying the Bitcoin bottom is not in yet. My view hasn’t changed. I still believe we’ll see below $55K, with $52K being the most important level. If panic gets worse, even $48K-$50K shouldn’t surprise anyone.
At the same time, I’ve already started buying more Bitcoin. I’m not trying to catch the exact bottom because nobody knows where it is. If Bitcoin never gives us another big drop, I don’t want to miss the opportunity by waiting for the perfect entry.
You don’t have to agree with my analysis. The market will decide. For now, I’ll continue following the same roadmap.
66 reposts 92 replies 331 likes
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