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Bitcoin
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Affairs
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No. 046 · 11 Jul 2026
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
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BTC / USD
$64,191
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24H CHANGE
-0.3%
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ALL-TIME HIGH
$124,749
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FROM ATH
-48.5%
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Fed tells Congress inflation intensified this spring, hardening higher-for-longer risk
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The Federal Reserve said in a new report to Congress that inflation "stepped up further this spring" as tariffs, Middle East energy costs and AI-driven investment added to price pressure. With the labor market described as roughly in balance, the report keeps the focus on next week's CPI data and the risk that rate cuts stay delayed.
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| Fed Rates Macro |
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Trump backs updated Russia sanctions bill targeting buyers of Moscow's oil
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U.S. senators said they reached agreement with the Trump administration to move forward with updated Russia sanctions legislation. The proposal would impose heavy financial penalties on buyers of Russian oil and gas, a step that could reverberate through energy markets, inflation expectations and broader risk sentiment.
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| Geopolitics Macro |
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Treasury hits Iranian financier and front companies as tanker attacks resume
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The U.S. imposed fresh Iran-related sanctions on banker Ali Ansari and a network of exchange houses and front companies after renewed attacks on oil tankers in and near the Strait of Hormuz. The action adds another layer of pressure to a conflict already shaping oil supply risk and Bitcoin's macro backdrop.
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| Geopolitics Macro Regulation |
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Four-year U.S. digital-dollar ban arrives through bipartisan housing bill passage
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A bipartisan housing bill is set to trigger a four-year ban on a U.S. central bank digital currency even without President Trump's signature. The measure removes a potential federal competitor to private stablecoins and shows how anti-CBDC politics are increasingly being folded into broader crypto legislation.
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| Regulation Macro |
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A look at the metrics
The Terminal
Seven on-chain signals that historically pinpoint cycle bottoms. Paid subscribers see today's readings alongside every prior cycle bottom. Upgrade to unlock |
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≡
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COMMENTARY
VOICE FROM THE NETWORK
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Your employees are connecting AI to everything. Now what?
ChatGPT and Claude aren't just answering questions. Employees are connecting them directly to Notion, Linear, Jira, and the rest of your stack — with no security visibility into what data moves or what actions they take.
Meet the biggest Bitcoin whales across every major category, from individuals and exchanges to governments and public companies.
See who's quietly stacking the most BTC and how their holdings compare. https://t.co/UZ9TvUqd0I
24 reposts 45 replies 520 likes
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Bitcoin fell to its 2nd most oversold level in history on the monthly chart 🚨 The only time it was lower was December 2022, when $BTC went on to soar 660% over the next 3 years 📈 🥳 🤑 https://t.co/qcbu4IVOdH
204 reposts 54 replies 1.2K likes
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Best bear market ever.
Reached a low of ~$58K, a 53% decline from its all-time high.
I'd be surprised if Bitcoin hasn't already bottomed. https://t.co/NNWTjJC88R
8 reposts 17 replies 167 likes
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The Second Low of the Bear Market (solid orange dot) is coming soon. The window for it is August - October this year.
The last important Halving Cycles Theory point was the First Low (hollow orange dot), which came perfectly in its January - March window (February 2026 at 60k).
The cycle bottom (green dot) is set for later, from November this year to January of next year.
Right on track!
125 reposts 16 replies 394 likes
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There's a good chance Bitcoin has one strong counter-trend rally that convinces the crowd the bottom is already behind us, along with a perfectly timed narrative to justify it. Many will pile in enthusiastically right before price heads meaningfully lower into year-end.
My reasoning here.
https://t.co/axTIpRyIcx
24 reposts 11 replies 240 likes
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As for Bitcoin, it too may be in an accumulation zone (in my view). At $60k it’s getting ever closer to its power law support line. https://t.co/M3T3rDGFMx
46 reposts 45 replies 395 likes
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