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Bitcoin
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Affairs
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No. 127 Β· 1 Oct 2026
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In partnership with
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
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BTC / USD
$83,881
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24H CHANGE
-0.2%
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ALL-TIME HIGH
$124,749
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FROM ATH
-32.8%
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Nine-day U.S. bitcoin ETF inflow streak breaks with $149 million outflow
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U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted $148.7 million of net outflows on Wednesday, ending a nine-session inflow streak worth roughly $3.1 billion. The reversal matters because ETF demand had been a major support for bitcoinβs late-September rally even as Treasury yields stayed near multi-decade highs.
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| ETF Macro |
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Citigroup lifts 12-month bitcoin target as ETF inflows and macro improve
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Citigroup raised its 12-month bitcoin target to $113,000 from $82,000 and lifted its ether forecast to $3,028, citing resumed ETF inflows and a friendlier macro backdrop. The call signals a meaningful turn in institutional sentiment after this summerβs drawdowns and could support allocator interest if flows keep recovering.
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| ETF Macro |
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Three tankers hit in Hormuz revive oil and shipping risk fears
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Three Liberian-flagged oil tankers were struck by unknown projectiles while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to shipping intelligence cited by Reuters. Even without a full blockage, a fresh security incident in the worldβs key oil chokepoint raises freight, insurance and crude-risk premia that can feed back into inflation and rate expectations.
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| Geopolitics Macro |
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U.S. factory activity holds up as ISM prices gauge surges again
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The ISM said September manufacturing PMI held at 54.5, marking a ninth straight month of expansion, while the prices index jumped to 77.9 from 71.1. That combination of resilient activity and hotter input costs complicates the softer-inflation narrative that had briefly helped bitcoin and other risk assets.
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| Rates Macro |
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β‘
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COMMENTARY
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JUST IN: @Citi raises its 12-month $BTC price target to $113K and $ETH to $3,028, citing resuming ETF inflows, Treasury buybacks and SEC rulemaking as catalysts. https://t.co/cAKlNPEnXq
35 reposts 47 replies 247 likes
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$BTC just printed its 2nd strongest Q3 in history.
The last time Q3 was this strong was 2017, and Q4 went on to rally over 200%.
Now the same seasonal pattern is showing up again.
Q4 is historically Bitcoinβs strongest quarter, and this setup has my attention. https://t.co/xr1y3dESQJ
8 reposts 110 replies 258 likes
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$BTC erased its entire PCE pump, which isn't a good sign.
When the pump on good news gets erased, it means the market wants to go down.
IMO, Bitcoin could tap the $79,000-$80,000 zone soon before any uptrend. https://t.co/UhgRWaxDgE
53 reposts 122 replies 686 likes
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Very little profits being taken by long term holders during the recovery off the bottom. It appears they want higher prices. $BTC https://t.co/ptVbKZ9n2a
8 reposts 8 replies 92 likes
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I'm still keeping a close eye on demand.
On Apparent Demand, the situation remains clearly negative. It currently stands at -112,500 BTC, which confirms that spot demand is still too weak.
We can nonetheless see some improvement since September 20, when Apparent Demand was at -207,000 bitcoin:native . ETFs contributed to this improvement, accumulating roughly 28,000 BTC over the period.
In this context, it wouldn't be unlikely to see BTC dip a bit to seek out demand where it actually is.
βπ‘To be clear : In this context, Apparent Demand is calculated as the difference between new BTC issuance and the amount of supply that has remained inactive for more than one year. In other words, this metric helps estimate whether structural accumulation is strong enough to absorb the new supply created by the network.β
4 reposts 6 replies 43 likes
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