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Bitcoin
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Affairs
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No. 137 · 11 Oct 2026
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Sponsored by
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
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BTC / USD
$83,051
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24H CHANGE
+0.1%
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ALL-TIME HIGH
$124,749
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FROM ATH
-33.4%
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Crypto ETF complex suffers $1.25 billion weekly bleed as bitcoin inflows reverse
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U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs lost $681.1 million last week, while spot ether ETFs shed $542.1 million in their worst week since January. The combined $1.25 billion pullback across bitcoin, ether and Solana funds suggests institutional risk appetite softened sharply after late-September inflows had briefly improved the picture for 2026.
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| ETF Macro |
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Trump and Iran dig in, keeping oil and inflation risks elevated globally
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AP reports that both Washington and Tehran are signaling the U.S. election calendar is not driving decisions around their seven-month war. For bitcoin markets, the main transmission channel remains oil and inflation, with sanctions and disrupted Iranian supply helping keep fuel prices elevated and rate-sensitive assets on edge.
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| Geopolitics Macro |
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One year after flash crash, leverage still shadows bitcoin market structure
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CoinDesk’s one-year lookback on the October 2025 flash crash says traders now have better tools to monitor positioning, but the core drivers of violent selloffs have not disappeared. Leverage, crowded derivatives bets and macro shocks still dominate short-term bitcoin price formation, even as the market has matured.
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| Macro On-chain |
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Bitcoin and ether liquidity recover from 10/10 crash while altcoins remain thin
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CoinDesk Research says bitcoin and ether order books are deeper than they were on the October 2025 crash day and at the start of 2026, showing market makers have rebuilt capital in the majors. Altcoin liquidity and spot volumes remain much weaker, reinforcing a market structure that is increasingly concentrated in BTC and ETH.
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| On-chain Macro |
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≡
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COMMENTARY
VOICE FROM THE NETWORK
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🚨 NEXT WEEK WILL DECIDE WHETHER OCTOBER TURNS INTO UPTOBER OR REKTOBER.
Monday: U.S. markets reopen after sanctions on Russian diesel were lifted. Lower fuel prices would help, but any new attacks on energy facilities could hurt the markets.
Tuesday: Jobs and housing data. Weak numbers bring recession fears back. Strong numbers keep rate hike fears alive.
Wednesday: CPI and Core CPI. Inflation is expected to be around 3.6% headline and 2.5% core. A hotter print can hit stocks and crypto hard. A cooler print will push the Fed to pause.
Thursday: PPI and Core PPI. Another inflation number that would be very crucial for the Fed's decision.
Friday: Kevin Warsh speaks. Any hawkish comment like Jackson Hole could put downward pressure on markets.
So far, the market is hoping for a rate pause, but this week could entirely change the direction.
157 reposts 87 replies 1.2K likes
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Situation Update: Ledger can confirm that one of the impacted users’ devices contained an unauthorized hardware implant. Ledger is reaching out to impacted users as part of the ongoing investigation. If you have information regarding the investigation, please reach out to Ledger’s bounty program: [email protected]. As a measure of precaution CryptoBilis confirmed it has ceased sales of all hardware wallet inventory until the investigation is concluded. Ledger is in active communication with CryptoBilis on next steps.
Ledger is working with the appropriate authorities to bring the bad actors to justice, and thanks @SEAL_911 for their collaborative support on the investigation. We have no indication that Ledger’s security infrastructure, systems or services have been compromised. As a reminder, Ledger recommends users who purchased a Ledger device from this reseller to not initiate set up if they have not yet done so. If you have set up your Ledger device, consider moving assets to a new Ledger signer (with a new seed).
Security is a constantly evolving landscape; Ledger is continuously adding security mitigations and is working on further, enhanced anti-tampering solutions.
Scammers often try to take advantage of incidents like this. Rely only on official Ledger channels for updates, and remember: Ledger will never ask for your 24-word recovery phrase.
For assistance or questions, contact Ledger customer support through our official channels: https://t.co/PeTo6Z7l84
365 reposts 219 replies 1.6K likes
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PSA the ledger incident isn't limited to Asia
This is a device purchased in store from an official reseller in Europe (a legitimate device doesn't have any of these cables as can be seen in picture 2)
This even seems to be an old version of the 'spy implant' even though the device was purchased a couple of weeks ago. The newer versions usually hide the implant by the screen so it's easier to miss
What's interesting is that this compromised ledger never transfered funds to an exploiter. Either the device didn't work or they were waiting for a more widespread usage of the comprised devices?
If you own a ledger that didn't directly come from the ledger online store make sure to not just rely on the software genuinely check by ledger but to actually open up the ledger yourself to make sure its original, again there are reported cases in Asia, south America and now Europe as well.
@MagicalTux made some useful videos on how to open the ledger and what to look for.
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162 reposts 115 replies 995 likes
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🚨 THE US TREASURY IS ABOUT TO TAKE A HUGE GAMBLE WITH ITS DEBT.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been trying to bring down bond yields, but the market keeps moving against him.
In September, Bessent challenged bond traders, saying, "I am the house now" and "you can bet against me if you want."
He increased long term bond buybacks to as much as $6 BILLION, but investors were disappointed and yields continued rising.
Now the 10-year Treasury yield has reached 5.23%, while the 30-year has climbed above 5.6%, levels not seen in more than two decades.
And now Citi expects Bessent to take an even bigger step.
On November 4, the Treasury could announce $3 BILLION cuts to both 20-year and 30-year bond auctions, with the 20-year bond potentially canceled entirely.
Instead, the US would borrow more through short term Treasury bills to reduce the supply of long term bonds and potentially ease yields.
But there's a serious risk.
Short term debt needs to be refinanced much more frequently, meaning the government could face even bigger interest costs if rates remain elevated.
And with US national debt approaching $40 TRILLION, even small changes in borrowing costs can have enormous consequences.
The Treasury may be able to reduce pressure on long term yields, but it cannot make America's debt problem disappear.
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91 reposts 47 replies 547 likes
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The ideal scenario would be for $BTC to push higher into the midterms, build a bullish narrative and sweep the highs. Then, as in previous cycles, we get a corrective move after the midterms.
This time though, that correction wouldn’t lead to a new cycle low. It would establish a higher low instead.
That feels like the most plausible scenario to me. If we dump into the midterms, I think we’re more likely to pump afterwards towards 95K.
Nearly 2B in longs have just been liquidated, and the midterms are only 3 weeks away. In my view, the maximum pain scenario would be a move back up into the midterms, after one side of the narrative has already been wrecked, followed by a reversal that catches the other side before the market derisks again.
The midterms will likely be framed as either a bearish or bullish catalyst. But given the current price action, sentiment, and the fact that one side has already been taken out, it looks like shorts are more exposed than longs right now.
3/4 midterms were followed by bearish price action one to two months later. Based on that historical sample, the odds are 75%.
I’m all for the market going up, but I trade the statistics and data, not just the outcome I want. So i think we only get the derisking after, not before the midterms.
Just some food for thought on the current price action.
I’m still holding the 10x long, along with the longs I posted at 62.6K and 76.4K. All positions remain open at full size.
28 reposts 44 replies 587 likes
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$BTC
Short squeeze incoming.
Over the weekend, price rose slightly and is now ranging.
Meanwhile, CVD has declined while open interest is rising.
In other words, more leveraged shorts are entering the market.
However, while leveraged traders are positioning for a continuation lower, spot CVD is rising, showing that spot participants are buying.
This puts pressure on all those newly opened shorts and could either lead to a Sunday scam pump or a more sustainable move higher next week.
I wouldn’t short here.
6 reposts 8 replies 94 likes
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