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Bitcoin
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Affairs
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No. 135 ยท 9 Oct 2026
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
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BTC / USD
$82,923
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24H CHANGE
+0.7%
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ALL-TIME HIGH
$124,749
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FROM ATH
-33.5%
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Waller keeps further Fed tightening on the table after September move
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In a speech published on October 8, Governor Christopher Waller argued Fed communication should keep markets open to further tightening after Septemberโs rate increase. For Bitcoin, the message is that U.S. liquidity conditions still lean restrictive even if the next move remains data dependent.
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| Fed Rates Macro |
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U.S. mortgage rates reach their highest level in nearly three years
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AP reported the average U.S. 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 6.73%, the highest level in nearly three years, extending a seven-week rise. The move shows how the bond selloff is feeding into real-economy financing conditions and tightening the macro backdrop for bitcoin.
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| Rates Macro |
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โก
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COMMENTARY
VOICE FROM THE NETWORK
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Silver Has Beaten Gold Before. It's Doing It Again.
From 1974 to 1987, silver more than doubled gold's returns. After 2008, it beat gold five-fold in three years. Since March 2020, silver is up 402% against gold's 186%. Our research team's free playbook explains why, and how the team would position.
๐จ Over $215 billion has been wiped out from the crypto market in the last 48 hours.
In the last hour alone, $410 million worth of longs were liquidated.
Bitcoin has crashed below $81,000.
Ethereum has crashed below $2,450.
Here is why this is happening ๐งต https://t.co/z8vkBAu5IX
95 reposts 71 replies 743 likes
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The market was already weak before this started.
Bitcoin's realized cap rose $12.8 billion in 30 days. Less than 40% of that came from new money.
Short term profit taking peaked to its highest level this year, per Glassnode.
Prices rose faster than new buyers arrived, and holders were already selling into strength.
4 reposts 2 replies 54 likes
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Second trigger: the US government moved a large amount of seized Bitcoin.
On October 8, 12,267 BTC (about $1.01B) left a wallet holding funds seized in the 2016 Bitfinex hack. It went to new, unlabeled addresses.
A day earlier, about 3,200 BTC ($264M) and $119M in USDT went to Coinbase Prime deposit addresses.
Traders are reading this as a sign the government may sell.
But There is no sign of a sale yet.
2 reposts 1 replies 31 likes
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Third trigger: the AI and quantum fear.
Justin Drake, a researcher at the Ethereum Foundation, highlighted new AI research that raises concern about the cryptography protecting Bitcoin and Ethereum wallets.
This comes after Google's March paper on quantum computing.
Nothing can break these wallets today. But the market sells first when the risk is the wallets themselves.
You Can read more about it here:
https://t.co/86zQ4fv0ms
2 reposts 1 replies 28 likes
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Fourth trigger: the Fed FOMC minutes.
The minutes from the September 15-16 meeting show the Fed voted 12-0 to raise rates. Most officials expect another hike by year-end.
The next meeting is October 27-28.
Higher rates for longer hurt Bitcoin and other risk assets. https://t.co/ULytR5KvYJ
0 reposts 2 replies 26 likes
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Fifth trigger: Iran and oil.
The Pentagon told US Central Command to finish preparations for resuming major combat operations in Iran, per Axios.
There is no date, and Trump has not made a final decision.
If strikes resume, they are expected to include heavy bombing of Iranian energy, infrastructure and nuclear targets.
Brent crude moved back above $105 after this news.
Higher oil means higher inflation. Which is dangerous for risk assets.
0 reposts 1 replies 24 likes
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