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Bitcoin
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Affairs
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No. 119 · 23 Sept 2026
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In partnership with
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
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BTC / USD
$84,558
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24H CHANGE
-2.0%
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ALL-TIME HIGH
$124,749
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FROM ATH
-32.2%
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28 Wishes sells ice cream in LA. Below 70°F, sales fall about 20%. So they put $20 a day into Kalshi weather markets, taking the cold side. The days that keep customers away now pay something back. Learn more.
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≡
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COMMENTARY
VOICE FROM THE NETWORK
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The ice cream shop that makes money when it's cold
28 Wishes sells ice cream in Los Angeles. Below 70°F, sales fall about 20%. The weather is out of their hands. Rent isn't.
So the owners started putting about $20 a day into Kalshi weather markets, taking the cold side. The days that keep customers away now pay something back.
This is hedging. Big companies have done it for decades, buying protection against bad weather, fuel spikes and rising rates. It used to take a broker, a trading desk, and an order size no corner shop could meet.
Kalshi opens it up. Contracts on weather, fuel prices, inflation, tariffs and regulation, starting at a few dollars. Take a position on the outcome that would hurt you. If it hits, the payout softens it. If it doesn't, the contract expires and the good month was the point.
I think $86k is longterm cheap but I’m not a buyer when short-term holders are realizing profits to this degree. $BTC https://t.co/KcpPxKzKOi
34 reposts 22 replies 338 likes
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$BTC is above all its key levels, which confirms a cycle bottom.
But that doesn't mean up-only.
IMO, Bitcoin will have an 8%-10% correction from here to flush out late longs. https://t.co/6hcvO5ziQ0
47 reposts 111 replies 741 likes
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DEMANDE CHECK
Despite Bitcoin's push higher, demand is still struggling to rebuild on a sustained basis, signals remain very mixed.
Spot demand continues to be negative, at -180 000 BTC, while futures demand has contracted slightly but remains positive at +54 000 BTC.
That said, it's worth noting that in the span of just a few days, average total demand went from -188 000 to -126 000 BTC.
3 reposts 10 replies 37 likes
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The four-year cycle playbook many relied on has not worked for this $BTC bear.
At this point, the last three were more than twice as deep and weeks from their lows.
This one is 30% below its high and rising.
A late drop to their depth looks less likely by the week. https://t.co/mEa8TUDc2T
16 reposts 35 replies 187 likes
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CRYPTO OUTPERFORMED EVERY OTHER ASSET THIS QUARTER.
$ETH is up 70% and $BTC is up 43%.
Meanwhile, semiconductor stocks are down 7% and KOSPI is down nearly 16%. Gold is up 8% Silver is up 12%. But those gains look very small next to crypto.
Capital is finally rotating back into crypto.
95 reposts 119 replies 766 likes
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Here’s my opinion on why Bitcoin bottomed so early.
Bitcoin ETF flows are now just 15% below all-time highs.
Smart money kept accumulating while retail stayed cautious.
That’s why Bitcoin bottomed early, and why this bear market was so mild. https://t.co/YmFbE4C5Ti
32 reposts 77 replies 426 likes
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