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Bitcoin
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Affairs
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No. 120 · 24 Sept 2026
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In partnership with
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
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BTC / USD
$84,168
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24H CHANGE
-0.5%
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ALL-TIME HIGH
$124,749
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FROM ATH
-32.5%
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Bitcoin slips below $84,000 as Treasury yields reset crypto’s macro ceiling
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Bitcoin fell back toward $83,300 on September 24 after the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007, tightening financial conditions across risk assets. CoinDesk also flagged a 6% drop in bitcoin futures open interest over 24 hours, suggesting leverage came out faster than spot price.
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| Rates Macro On-chain |
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Fed’s Williams says another 2026 rate hike remains a reasonable path
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New York Fed President John Williams said on September 24 that it is reasonable to expect another U.S. rate hike before year-end if inflation risks persist. The remarks reinforced a hawkish read of last week’s Fed move and kept markets focused on a possible October increase.
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Bank of England warns energy shock could yet force tighter policy
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Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli said persistent energy-price strength raises the risk that indirect and second-round inflation effects become entrenched. Her message was that current settings are already restrictive, but rates may need to rise if elevated energy costs continue feeding through.
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EU watchdogs flag quantum risk as a nearer-term threat to Bitcoin
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The European Supervisory Authorities said quantum computing could undermine cryptography used in blockchains before the technology has broad commercial applications. The warning adds policy urgency to Bitcoin’s long-running debate over how to protect coins in legacy or reused addresses.
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| Regulation On-chain |
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≡
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COMMENTARY
VOICE FROM THE NETWORK
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Join Anthropic, Kalshi, and Clay at Pioneer on October 7th
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You’ll discover how some of the most innovative minds in CX have transformed their organizations, learn how they think about CX, and hear how they're planning for what's next.
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🚨 MASSIVE CRASH IN THE MARKETS.
Almost $1 TRILLION wiped out from US stocks, metals, and crypto in the last hour, as Iran's President says we'll never surrender.
S&P 500 is down -0.6%, wiping out $414 billion.
Gold is down -0.8%, wiping out $242 billion.
Silver is down -1.5%, wiping out $55 billion.
Bitcoin is down -2.2%, wiping out $40 billion.
Nasdaq is down -1.1%, wiping out around $149 billion.
Markets are now pricing in a prolonged US-Iran conflict, which would push oil prices higher and add more pressure on inflation.
515 reposts 332 replies 3.0K likes
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$BTC just dropped below $83,000 as the US 10 year yield hits its highest level since 2007. https://t.co/IQELiuET4y
85 reposts 141 replies 945 likes
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The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield has just hit its highest level since 2004.
It’s now around 5.44%.
That’s a pretty big move, especially with the 10-year yield also sitting above 5.1%.
The bond market is pricing in a very different rate environment as stronger U.S. economic data and renewed inflation concerns push expectations for further Fed hikes higher.
What I’m watching here is the longer end of the curve.
When 30-year yields keep rising, the pressure doesn’t just stay in the bond market. It feeds into mortgages, corporate borrowing, government financing and the required return investors demand from risk assets.
Bitcoin is still attracting institutional demand, but it’s having to compete with increasingly attractive Treasury yields at the same time.
I’m watching this closely.
If the 30-year continues pushing higher alongside the 10-year, I think it becomes an increasingly important macro headwind for stocks and crypto.
22 reposts 11 replies 102 likes
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Last time the US 10Y yield was going up, $BTC pumped 76%.
Just saying... https://t.co/sa3JyK9DNB
17 reposts 52 replies 258 likes
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Holders are realizing profits on bitcoin:native.
However, the amounts remain relatively low, with $5.1B in net profit realized over the last 7 days.
They look closer to late 2023 levels than to what we saw at major tops. https://t.co/81kh3WHCoG
22 reposts 35 replies 287 likes
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✅ Bull Market Confirmed.
After sharing with you that the end of the bear market was approaching with a signal given on July 11th, we now have the confirmation signal that the momentum has indeed shifted.
This is the 5th occurrence, which gives a bit more credibility to the dynamic Bitcoin is putting in place, though there's always a margin for error, and I prefer to point that out.
This signal happens when the STH cost basis confirms crossing above the active LTH cost basis.
By active LTH, I mean the portion of supply that has moved at least once over the past 7 years.
This way, we exclude the portion of supply that can be considered dormant/immobile.
It's an arbitrary choice, not a perfect one, but it still makes the LTH cost basis more coherent.
Worth noting: we have more than 3.5 million BTC older than 10 years that continue to stay dormant. This portion of supply keeps growing by roughly 8 000 to 30 000 BTC per month on average.
Since 2019, this average has only gone negative once, following the reawakening of an old miner who moved around 100 000 BTC, so this remains a very isolated event.
If this signal were ever to be invalidated, I'll let you know, but for now we're looking at a very positive development for Bitcoin, notably driven by the inflow of ETF liquidity.
7 reposts 2 replies 66 likes
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