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Bitcoin
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Affairs
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No. 126 ยท 30 Sept 2026
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Sponsored by
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
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BTC / USD
$83,850
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24H CHANGE
-0.3%
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ALL-TIME HIGH
$124,749
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FROM ATH
-32.8%
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US core PCE cools as spending jumps, easing immediate rate fears
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U.S. August PCE rose 0.3% month over month and 3.4% year over year, while core PCE rose 0.2% on the month and 3.0% on the year. Personal spending climbed 0.9%, giving bitcoin markets a softer inflation print but still-firm underlying demand to parse.
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| Fed Rates Macro |
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Coinbase wins CFTC clearing approval, completing regulated US derivatives stack
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Coinbase received CFTC approval to register Coinbase Clearing as a derivatives clearing organization, allowing it to list, broker, and clear fully collateralized products in-house. The approval completes Coinbaseโs regulated U.S. derivatives stack and strengthens market structure around bitcoin-linked trading.
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| Regulation |
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Robinhood plans US bitcoin perpetuals launch with leverage and weekend trading
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Robinhood said it plans to launch perpetual futures for eligible U.S. users in the coming months, including bitcoin and ether contracts with up to 10x leverage. It also said weekend trading for select U.S. equities is planned, further blending crypto-style market access into mainstream brokerage rails.
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| Regulation |
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On-chain demand cools as CryptoQuant flags near-term bitcoin correction risk
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CryptoQuant said bitcoin remains in a bull market but may be vulnerable to a near-term correction as short-term tradersโ unrealized profit margin hit a 21-month high. The firm also said spot demand has contracted by about 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days while futures demand growth has slowed sharply.
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| On-chain |
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Bitcoin retests key long-term holder cost basis as leverage resets
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Glassnode data cited by The Block show bitcoin is retesting its largest long-term holder cost-basis cluster around $84,000 to $85,000. Open interest denominated in BTC has fallen almost 20% since early August, suggesting leverage has been cleared as price probes a major holder zone.
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| On-chain |
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โก
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COMMENTARY
VOICE FROM THE NETWORK
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๐จALERT: Bitcoin just broke above $85,000 minutes after cooler-than-expected U.S. PCE inflation data.
The softer inflation print pushed rate hike odds lower and gave risk assets an immediate boost.
$BTC is now reacting FAST as traders price in a less hawkish Fed.
38 reposts 53 replies 397 likes
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$BTC If this deviates below $83K I am going more defensive mode until the Fed/Treasury steps in and defends the long end yields in some shape or form like Bessent tried doing a month ago.
That didn't have any effect in the end for the yields but did spark the BTC & Crypto rally halfway through August.
Alternative could be Trump taco'ing on the war which should ease inflation expectations, bring oil down and also gets yields lower.
Midterms next month so maybe he'll time it right before so the "win", which he would label it as, is fresh in everyone's minds.
I think that if the chart confirms a breakdown after sweeping the may highs at $83K, with these things at play, it doesn't hurt just taking it chill until something changes
It has been an amazing few months for gains so rather defend that capital while it is still at its highs.
For now let's see if $83K holds or if the bulls can retake $85K. We've just been ranging here for the past week in the end.
But below $83K this will be my train of thought. I also think that would signal a more risk off environment for alts if it happens.
High timeframe market structure flips are great, but you do need to see follow through. A rejection below your breakout level as sentiment flips bullish and lots of ETF flows come in above, is not the recipe for the continuation of a bullish environment you want to see.
Just my two cents.
7 reposts 14 replies 61 likes
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$BTC just printed its 2nd strongest Q3 in history.
The last time Q3 was this strong was 2017, and Q4 went on to rally over 200%.
Now the same seasonal pattern is showing up again.
Q4 is historically Bitcoinโs strongest quarter, and this setup has my attention. https://t.co/xr1y3dESQJ
6 reposts 46 replies 166 likes
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๐๏ธ Bitcoin turns futures-heavy as spot demand stays weak
Bitcoin is currently in a regime where futures dominance is heavy compared to spot volumes.
The ratio on Binance, the platform that records the largest spot and futures volumes, is around 0.12 right now.
This means this market phase on bitcoin:native is nearly 90% dominated by futures volumes. In other words, for every $1 invested in spot, $9 are deployed on futures, which is a considerable gap.
Even though open interest is currently declining, having dropped on Binance from $10.6B to $9.2B over the course of a week, spot demand remains weak, which prevents the ratio from improving.
It's true that bullish phases are often triggered by a return of speculation, which is the spark that lights the fuse before the move also becomes supported by spot demand.
Right now, that spot demand remains the missing piece, and without it, this rebound driven mostly by futures could quickly become unstable.
6 reposts 4 replies 49 likes
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$BTC price is being capped from the upside with large sell orders.
Until Bitcoin breaks above the $85,500 level, the sideways action will continue. https://t.co/KZEjQ0H5UJ
32 reposts 53 replies 345 likes
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